Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 30, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 30, 2015

China continues to takeover the Pacific with ships and reclaimed reefs. Taiwan’s DPP continues to knock down statues of KMT-Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, which further indicates that Taiwan’s popularity favors national sovereignty. The same sympathy continues to slant in Hong Kong. China inaugurates its controversial flight M503, seven kilometers from Taiwan’s airspace, the Taiwanese aren’t happy about it, and the KMT-Nationalists and Communist Chinese aren’t happy that they aren’t happy. A lot of people in the Pacific aren’t happy. Read More

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

The conflict is already here. As it seems, China always planned to invade Taiwan and upset the teetering Pacific balance. Myanmar and India won’t have any more. Declassified notes (last week) suggest China was lying about their intentions with Hong Kong since 1958 and Thatcher knew this in her confidential talks with Beijing in the 1980’s. The “economic” rout to taking over Taiwan seems only a way to bide time so that Beijing’s military could grow stronger and, thus, their invasion would be more likely to succeed. Economics were never a “first option”, but only a ploy.

Analysts who buy into to the “by fore if necessary” rhetoric could say that China’s “economic option” (AKA a ‘hostile takeover’) with Taiwan was “wishful thinking” or an “either way” approach. Through economic ties, so it could be said, Beijing could cripple Taiwan before the invasion. Thus, Taiwan could always cave, “but if not”, Beijing would be in a better position.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015

A thorough and thoughtful article catches wind, documenting China’s threats against Great Britain over Hong Kong. Based on records declassified in 2013, the Crown wanted independence for Hong Kong long ago, but Beijing threatened invasion. The Hong Kong we know has been a store front so China can access the world and so Taiwan would become jealous, which it has not. This research article surfaced in the wake of the foreseeable publicizing effect of the Umbrella Movement’s forte. Now, reports are suggesting that, not only do China’s promises no longer matter, but they probably never mattered in the first place.

Bullies make threats because they fear conflict. Victors reply, “It doesn’t matter,” before the fight. Peacemakers are usually the most powerful. China has one problem that goes largely unreported: They have not been tested by war as the last four generations of American soldiers have been. China’s other problems are starting to make headlines, including the fact that Taiwan is finding its heart.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Taiwan and China are reportedly taking the turn to provoke God. Beijing is turning from Israel and Taiwan will no longer “discriminate” against adultery. Recent history knows that countries that change their policy on Israel get “bad luck”, but fully legalizing adultery has yet to be tested. Israel and Islam are ever more on the Asian radar in news and politics.

The highly popular mayor of Tainan in Taiwan has determined to remove statues of Chiang Kai-shek in the shadow of the recent 228 massacre memorial, when Taiwanese refused to welcome the KMT-Nationalists in their flight from the Communists, thus preparing the way for decades of martial law. Chiang Kai-shek and his KMT-Nationalist political party are seen as tyrants by more and more Taiwanese.

The West shakes its head more and more over the region, whether moving moved Microsoft jobs to Vietnam, climate, dealings with the neighbors, or Hong Kong promises—which the Crown, all of a sudden, thinks weren’t kept so well as was claimed a few months ago.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 9

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 9

Three trends spanned the Pacific this week: journalism, entrepreneurs, and 2016 elections. News of ISIS spreads across Asia Pacific, including videos of a man being burned alive. China barks at century-old Taiwanese government leaders about standing up to the young Communist regime. Taiwanese local leaders respond that Beijing should learn to move past the past and just get along. A former US official, Richard Bush, unofficially speculates (without actually speculating) on China’s yet-to-be-seen reaction to Taiwan’s 2016 likely election swing away from the floundering, grossly unpopular, de facto pro-China, incumbent KMT-Nationalist party. The recently acquired economic powerhouse, Hong Kong, receives more lectures from Communist Beijing, which only alienate the upcoming generation; though there is little to suggest that Hong Kong’s successful entrepreneurs have been invited to lecture new Chinese businesses on how to catch up to the former British colony. Beijing’s solution to the Umbrella Movement is to change high school curriculum to remind students how much they need China.  · · · →