Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 13, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 13, 2015

China’s new bank (AIIB, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) dominated headlines this week. AIIB’s history suggests China wants infrastructure money without being told to clean up the environment, respect human rights, or play nice with their hope-to-be soon-to-be-annexed neighbors. The US could have jumped-in and controlled AIIB, but didn’t, as if the US anticipates that AIIB may lose money after, say, a conflict in the Pacific.

The bank seems to be a line in the sand for US allies in the Pacific, but not so much in Europe. The Internet is flooded with articles claiming that China won’t control their own bank, some of which Cadence has too much dignity to link to. Does hiring Westerners to run the Chinese bank make it less “Chinese”? Beijing marketing departments might think so.

Isn’t it interesting that China is creating a bank for infrastructure while, at the same time, China is building up their military to knock-out existing infrastructure in places like Taiwan? All this Pacific infrastructure talk smells a little “fishy”, as it were. China wants to invest. The US doesn’t. The bank controversy may not be about politics, but about money—gambling on who will get a return on their investment after… “something” happens and “someone” wins.

China is building up in the Pacific and the US isn’t afraid to say so, especially to Taiwan. Taiwan made more great poses for the camera with the US, which China won’t like. Taiwan is rolling out a new political party, which the Establishment won’t like.

Chinese corruption and the environment crossed swords this week. No one seems to have asked why China has so much corruption. The answer would likely be that strong households maintain themselves first, while those who think more about their neighbors often leave the own homes in disrepair.

Chinese and Western press exchanges drew a little more attention than normal this week. We see a pattern in both press and policy: Poke at China and they spill their beans; oppose China from abroad and they try to annex you, “by force if necessary”. Michael Cole deserves a medal for getting a Chinese general to give away more of Beijing’s intentions, this time with classy Beijing graphics, though the Pacific Daily Times doesn’t exactly share a coterminous opinion on Israel; we like Israel at the Times. But Michael is as informed as he is thought provoking—and good at provoking the PLA into revealing strategy. With ISIS on the move so much that even Japan is watching, we all might come around to appreciating Israel for standing in their way.

What makes a nation aggressive? Will China give up its claim to the map if the good guys erase themselves from it? An academic blog article encourages the US to infiltrate China’s new bank, claiming that the US is partially to blame for its creation. While joining China’s AIIB might be a good idea—had war on the horizon not made it a risky investment for the Yanks—China didn’t create that AIIB bank because of lack of control in the IMF.

Obama’s election wouldn’t make Al Sharpton complain less nor would Israel’s annihilation suddenly make ISIS stop burning people alive. Limbaugh predicted it: Obama’s election preceded a spike in ethnic tension in America. ISIS is angry that they don’t already control Europe because Israel is in their way. If China controlled the IMF, the AIIB would already be open for business. And if China acquired Taiwan, Beijing would soon publish genealogical claims to Tokyo, and why not Jerusalem and Tehran too?

Top Stories

Britain’s Support for China’s AIIB Means Japan, Parroting the U.S., Is Trapped

…Old, but shows the controversy surfacing.

US reports on Chinese naval threat to Taiwan

“Friction between China and its neighbors appears increasingly likely as Beijing seeks to deter rival activities and assert its own claimed rights and interests.”

The Great Chinese Lie About Taiwan

…From J Michael Cole on China and the controversy *See more under Taiwan

Retired PLA General responds to J Michael Cole

…Photo of a Chinese General’s backlash against Cole (in his Chinese article) *See more under Taiwan

Territorial Claims in the South China Sea

…NY Times maps from 2012, informative

Read More

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 30, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 30, 2015

China continues to takeover the Pacific with ships and reclaimed reefs. Taiwan’s DPP continues to knock down statues of KMT-Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, which further indicates that Taiwan’s popularity favors national sovereignty. The same sympathy continues to slant in Hong Kong. China inaugurates its controversial flight M503, seven kilometers from Taiwan’s airspace, the Taiwanese aren’t happy about it, and the KMT-Nationalists and Communist Chinese aren’t happy that they aren’t happy. A lot of people in the Pacific aren’t happy. Read More

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

The conflict is already here. As it seems, China always planned to invade Taiwan and upset the teetering Pacific balance. Myanmar and India won’t have any more. Declassified notes (last week) suggest China was lying about their intentions with Hong Kong since 1958 and Thatcher knew this in her confidential talks with Beijing in the 1980’s. The “economic” rout to taking over Taiwan seems only a way to bide time so that Beijing’s military could grow stronger and, thus, their invasion would be more likely to succeed. Economics were never a “first option”, but only a ploy.

Analysts who buy into to the “by fore if necessary” rhetoric could say that China’s “economic option” (AKA a ‘hostile takeover’) with Taiwan was “wishful thinking” or an “either way” approach. Through economic ties, so it could be said, Beijing could cripple Taiwan before the invasion. Thus, Taiwan could always cave, “but if not”, Beijing would be in a better position.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015

A thorough and thoughtful article catches wind, documenting China’s threats against Great Britain over Hong Kong. Based on records declassified in 2013, the Crown wanted independence for Hong Kong long ago, but Beijing threatened invasion. The Hong Kong we know has been a store front so China can access the world and so Taiwan would become jealous, which it has not. This research article surfaced in the wake of the foreseeable publicizing effect of the Umbrella Movement’s forte. Now, reports are suggesting that, not only do China’s promises no longer matter, but they probably never mattered in the first place.

Bullies make threats because they fear conflict. Victors reply, “It doesn’t matter,” before the fight. Peacemakers are usually the most powerful. China has one problem that goes largely unreported: They have not been tested by war as the last four generations of American soldiers have been. China’s other problems are starting to make headlines, including the fact that Taiwan is finding its heart.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Taiwan and China are reportedly taking the turn to provoke God. Beijing is turning from Israel and Taiwan will no longer “discriminate” against adultery. Recent history knows that countries that change their policy on Israel get “bad luck”, but fully legalizing adultery has yet to be tested. Israel and Islam are ever more on the Asian radar in news and politics.

The highly popular mayor of Tainan in Taiwan has determined to remove statues of Chiang Kai-shek in the shadow of the recent 228 massacre memorial, when Taiwanese refused to welcome the KMT-Nationalists in their flight from the Communists, thus preparing the way for decades of martial law. Chiang Kai-shek and his KMT-Nationalist political party are seen as tyrants by more and more Taiwanese.

The West shakes its head more and more over the region, whether moving moved Microsoft jobs to Vietnam, climate, dealings with the neighbors, or Hong Kong promises—which the Crown, all of a sudden, thinks weren’t kept so well as was claimed a few months ago.  · · · →