Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 9, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 9, 2015

China was doing great. They had it “goin’ on”. Then, they made some choices over the last few years. Now, the Pacific region is foreseeably destabilizing. But the least of those concerns, and arguably the most overrated, is the situation in Hong Kong. Before we review the facts, read clearly; Hongkongers have nothing to fear. Here are the facts: China promised a kind of “contained autonomy” to Hong Kong as a precondition for Britain leaving the former colony.

As history repeated in Hong Kong as in the American British colonies, when Britain left, the former colony prospered. Now, in being consistent with old school Asian rhetoric, China is omitting key phrases during rhetoric that relates to its own promise. Beijing speaks more and more about their power over Hong Kong and less about Hong Kong’s power within its own territory.

The uninformed West, including westernized Hongkongers, misunderstood this old school Asian rhetoric as being a threat.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Taiwan and China are reportedly taking the turn to provoke God. Beijing is turning from Israel and Taiwan will no longer “discriminate” against adultery. Recent history knows that countries that change their policy on Israel get “bad luck”, but fully legalizing adultery has yet to be tested. Israel and Islam are ever more on the Asian radar in news and politics.

The highly popular mayor of Tainan in Taiwan has determined to remove statues of Chiang Kai-shek in the shadow of the recent 228 massacre memorial, when Taiwanese refused to welcome the KMT-Nationalists in their flight from the Communists, thus preparing the way for decades of martial law. Chiang Kai-shek and his KMT-Nationalist political party are seen as tyrants by more and more Taiwanese.

The West shakes its head more and more over the region, whether moving moved Microsoft jobs to Vietnam, climate, dealings with the neighbors, or Hong Kong promises—which the Crown, all of a sudden, thinks weren’t kept so well as was claimed a few months ago.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 23

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 23

Muslims wanted attention… They got it. Japan authorized millions in aid to fight terrorism. Myanmar calls on China to help them fight against terrorist attacks, ostensibly being launched from inside China. Beijing may not like being asked to turn their attention away from the great threat it feels from Taiwan. But, the terrorists in Myanmar don’t have yellow umbrellas. And President Xi is internationally considered to be almost as “great” as Chairman Mao himself! So, Myanmar may not get as much attention as Hong Kong. China is also being asked to help with Afghanistan.

Taiwan’s economic relationship with Beijing may have been an attempt to exploit Beijing’s greed, biding their time and getting rich off of China until unification with Taiwan would work in Taiwan’s interest and against China’s—and probably never happen at all. Perhaps Beijing will learn: There is more to international magnanimity than targeting the most peaceful and defenseless of Pacific islets.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 16

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 16

Propaganda turn of the tide. For years, Chinese have attended international circles, promulgated their talking points, and convinced others to unwittingly do the same. But, recent reports explain that having traffic lights and convincing drivers to stop at them are two different things.

China’s military has some technology, flaunts technology it does and doesn’t have, but lacks the first-world culture necessary to support its technology. The US has better technology, conceals the technology, “reveals” technology it wants China to know about, and certainly has the organized culture to make its technology work.

This week, China prepares to celebrate the Chinese New Year, which commemorates the creation of the KMT-Nationalist-controlled Chinese government 104 years ago, which is not the government founded by the Communist Party, but the government of Taiwan. Taiwan celebrates the same New Year that Beijing still recognizes, though China has not been reported to give homage to the 104 year old government that has been in exile since 1949.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 9

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, February 9

Three trends spanned the Pacific this week: journalism, entrepreneurs, and 2016 elections. News of ISIS spreads across Asia Pacific, including videos of a man being burned alive. China barks at century-old Taiwanese government leaders about standing up to the young Communist regime. Taiwanese local leaders respond that Beijing should learn to move past the past and just get along. A former US official, Richard Bush, unofficially speculates (without actually speculating) on China’s yet-to-be-seen reaction to Taiwan’s 2016 likely election swing away from the floundering, grossly unpopular, de facto pro-China, incumbent KMT-Nationalist party. The recently acquired economic powerhouse, Hong Kong, receives more lectures from Communist Beijing, which only alienate the upcoming generation; though there is little to suggest that Hong Kong’s successful entrepreneurs have been invited to lecture new Chinese businesses on how to catch up to the former British colony. Beijing’s solution to the Umbrella Movement is to change high school curriculum to remind students how much they need China.  · · · →