The government shutdown is good for Trump and good for the wall. He said what he meant and he meant he wasn’t bluffing. Good, old fashion follow-through is one of DC’s lost virtues. If the current budget isn’t passed by the start of the new 116th Congress on January 3, then it will die. It already has approval of the White House and has passed the House. The quickest way to end the government shutdown is for the Senate to pass the bill.
Ultimately this is a game of “chicken”. Either way, we should expect whining everyday. The key to Congress surviving a government shutdown is the theater of talking everyday as if “today’s the day” that the government will reopen. It’s somewhat akin to the act that Democrats and drive-by news anchors put on about how “today’s the day” when they will find the “silver bullet” to stop Trump.
There is no such silver bullet, not even today.
The main actors rising above the dust are the Kushners. Jared and Ivanka are drafting deals and growing coalitions, no matter their father’s opponents. Their progress should be bigger news.
So, over Christmas, the worms of Capitol Hill take pot shots at each other and the president is referred to as a child for sticking to his promises, just as Clinton did when he vetoed the budget. One of the best kept secrets about government shutdowns is that the government doesn’t actually shut down. To some, that’s a disappointment. Even Mueller’s investigation continues, but the Supreme Court might stuff coal in his stocking. The holiday season has many more surprises yet to come.
David Hogg is right, but the Hollywood Left is trying to exploit him. Baby Boomers have failed to manage their Democracy, along with their kids, and however that generational chain works its way into the students currently in school. Clear backpacks are, best put, “stupid”. Showing girls’ tampons in the hallway and letting all students spy in each other’s bags doesn’t stop a gunman from hurting people. But, that comes from common sense, not the 1st Amendment.
The 2nd Amendment is David Hogg’s best friend. The best way to restrict guns in America is to deny them to everyone who has not completed the Constitutional mandate for all-citizen militia training. Hogg doesn’t care about scrapping it nor about Left or Right politics, though the Left capitalizes on him and his friends. That, too, could backfire.
In all this, David Hogg and his classmates are doing the country a great and wonderful favor: They are getting involved in politics as they should be. One does not need to be a Constitutional expert, we just need to be involved, even with much yet to learn. Bravo, David! Had high school students been so concerned 20 years ago we would not have the problems we do today.
But, we can’t say the same for the Leftist “snatch the guns” reactors. They don’t see the real issue, Trump does: China.
With an irresponsibly depleted military, the last remaining reason China has not invaded the United States is all the guns at large throughout the country. The 2nd Amendment’s militia training of all citizens would solve our gun violence problem, but it’s still not satisfactory for national defense. We need a stronger military.
This terrible omnibus budget that Congress sent to Trump makes a mockery of Congress, not Trump. Trump signed it because of its military budget that would make Reagan proud. It’s the largest military budget in US history.
Signing the budget will not hurt Trump’s changes of re-election. There will be unpopularity for a while, but this showed his “presidential sensibility” and he will have plenty of time to turn this against the dissenters in Congress with them leaving for the 2018 campaign trail. Trump’s base will understand him. International threats from a decade of military neglect is the bigger problem we face. Trumpists will blame Congress and many of those laughing at Trump now could find themselves fired in November.
Symphony has long said that mid terms on new presidents often flop as they likely will in 2018. But, mid-term losses will bring out the Conservative vote in 2020 and more voter turnout altogether.
In the economy, Facebook is in trouble, but it will survive better than the media would have us think. It’s a good time to buy Facebook stock since it’s low—that is with the “buy low, sell high” principle. The company was also founded and headed by a kid with little experience. Manipulating news feeds, suspending accounts, and not planning better for sneaky operations like Cambridge Analytica—they were bound for “brat” troubles. But, Facebook is too important for society to let it slide. The bigger debate yet to come will be over AI research “big” money that will want terabytes of user data to make an AI seem like it has a soul, as part of the AI cult that thinks Star Trek the Motion Picture is reality. A takeover by the public under a combination of stock market status and public utility laws will be the miraculous solution we will be told to think was the brilliant answer no one else thought of.
In another sector of society and politics, manufacturing is coming back to America. This will humble and strengthen the United States as it should. The US will no longer be a “service economy” where all the other [implied-to-be] “lesser” nations do the manufacturing and Americans merely oversee work that is “beneath” them. By having an equal playing field, Americans will come down off their pedestal and start doing hard, skilled labor just like every other nation needs to do. The two younger hard working generations are returning not only to political involvement, but also entrepreneurship and good, old fashioned hard work.
The budget deal in Congress declares two myths, one from time travel budgeting, the other from silence. When the “experts” project a deficit based on the current spending plan, 1. none of the money has been spent yet and 2. none of the spending tax money has come in yet. They aren’t only counting chickens before they hatch, they already have them buttered on the Christmas dinner table.
The spending projection assumes the previous year’s tax income. If tax rates drop, so does the projected income drop, proportionately. There is some “trickle down” account for the assumption that consumers may spend more and employers hire more since they have the funds not taxed, but they don’t consider synergy. They don’t use AI simulations to project the slew of companies who haven’t announced—but will anyway do—investment within the market. New companies will be capable of coming into being which weren’t able to without the new financial ecosystem. Those aren’t accounted for because they can’t be predicted. The forecast we have is based not on synergistic outcomes—AKA reality—but on comparing last years results against this year’s new methods—AKA time travel.
The second myth comes from silence, namely renegotiating trade agreements. Adjustments making the US market part of a two-way street will also bring new revenue sources—rather than a one-way street that screws the US economy into the ground. These are part of separate agreements already promised, already underway, but largely unfinished and unreported. Budget forecast about those factors are simply silent.
The budget forecast isn’t any accurate prediction of the future, but a kind of comparison for number geeks in black-tie offices. What actually happens is never known until it happens.
Police departments are ceasing patrol due to unpopularity with the people, according to an FBI report. France, like Canada and the US 12 years ago, also has new, young president. The new president, Emanuel Macron, who won by more than 65%, ran on a campaign of cutting spending, loosening France’s ever-so-strict labor laws, and protecting the self-employed. Regardless of what you think you know of Le Pen, who lost, French politics aren’t what they seem. The same can be said of the new politics on Capital Hill.
Trump’s budget deal is complex. It angered people, he knew it would, he wanted it to. But, the backlash will also be complex. His two-part Tweet tells it all.
Trump could have used the budget reconciliation rule to pass a budget bill or to repeal Obamacare, which suspends the 60-vote rule over matters of Constitution and budget. Democrats used it to pass Obamacare, which seemed to be misuse of the rule; Republicans didn’t use it to repeal Obamacare. He could have suspended the 60 vote rule, but he didn’t and he hasn’t. He won’t because he wants the 60 vote rule removed—a rule which, more or less, allows “auto filibuster”, so opponents can keep needless discussion going to stop a law from being voted on, without actually having to attend any meetings. It’s a silly rule in the Senate. It’s a relatively new rule in the Senate. The House has no such rule. Thankfully, families and business also don’t have such rules. Trump is playing smart. The best solution to bad rules and laws: rigorous enforcement. He wants his supporters to support efforts to eliminate the 60-vote rule so that, as in the House, a law only needs a simple majority to be passed.
There is still no wall. Obamacare isn’t gone. Some Trump supporters are angry—though, keep watching: They’ll cool off around election time when they see what pops over the horizon.
One very important thing happened: military. China, Korea, and the Middle East are heating up. China is making huge strides with constructing its first aircraft carrier. We needed that military cleanup from eight years of rust. Otherwise it would be the North Koreans vs ISIS jihadists fighting over who gets to keep your women, brainwash your children, and kill the rest of your family—no matter what country you live in. Like it or not, evil or good or somewhere in the vast in-between, the decaying US military is all that keeps people who don’t apologize away from the shores of the people who do. This budget kept that military going.
Yes, it did make other milestones. It was a first: A new president actually influenced the current year’s budget—because we were over-budget from eight years before. Yes, the bill boosted military spending without having to boost non-related programs. And, yes, Trump will be in a better position to threaten with a shutdown later, since the military is finally operational again.
But, the people won’t have it. Trump was supposed to drain the swamp. Where’s the wall? Why is the US spending over $1B on non-citizens in our prisons? Why not fix Obamacare with the same rout that it was created? The people want results now. They will come back to support Trump in 2018 and 2020, but only briefly; and in between, they will get thirsty for a third party. Perhaps that was also part of Trump’s plan in the first place. Let’s be frank; the Republican party likes Trump and his base about as much as Britain liked General George Washington and the American colonies.