Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 9, 2016

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 9, 2016

China is angry. It’s always easy to tell when someone makes lightly veiled threats in the forms of “advice” or “caution”. These comments came from a Chinese diplomat, that pressure in the South China Sea could “rebound” like a “coiled spring”, depending on where it is “aimed” by the US.

In his analogy, he didn’t seem to elaborate on how an engineering culture explains US “aiming” (intention) having a direct effect on spring-coil physics. Usually, one aims with a sling, not a spring; and their is no pressure, only tension and sudden impact.

Chinese easily make grand contradictions in their implications when they don’t say most of what they think. This is part of the East-Asian “implication-driven” culture. The problem is that they rarely see the implications of making contradictory implications—the problem being that it is incredibly obvious to Westerners skilled in recognizing things at face-value.

Putting his conflicting analogy on the couch, this likely indicates he feels more frustration than his Asian culture tells him is appropriate to express. According to Reuters:

China has been particularly angered by what it sees as interference by the United States, whose military has carried out “freedom of navigation” patrols through the sea.

It is evermore clear what is happening: The US is patrolling the same waters, with sling in hand as always. Beijing feels “pressure” from the continuance of peaceful patrols. China behaves as if it knows something the US does not.

Between the fighter and the bull, we know who is in control. And we know who is angry and who is indifferent in the arena of Southeast Asia.

Kim Jong-Un just became Chairman of his political party, in addition to being the Great Successor of the DPRK. The party held a rare meeting, the first in 36 years, where he observed, or properly, “chaired”. There appear to be no reports of whether the meeting was a great success.

Taiwan’s soon-to-be-ousted, lame duck Education minister says that the controversial national high school curriculum—opposed for rewriting history as to murder and slaughter under the direction of KMT-Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Sheck—says that the curriculum has no problems. He considers the curriculum to be part of his legacy. So it is.

Interesting things are happening in London. Events of the Atlantic will echo in the Pacific.

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Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 23, 2015

The conflict is already here. As it seems, China always planned to invade Taiwan and upset the teetering Pacific balance. Myanmar and India won’t have any more. Declassified notes (last week) suggest China was lying about their intentions with Hong Kong since 1958 and Thatcher knew this in her confidential talks with Beijing in the 1980’s. The “economic” rout to taking over Taiwan seems only a way to bide time so that Beijing’s military could grow stronger and, thus, their invasion would be more likely to succeed. Economics were never a “first option”, but only a ploy.

Analysts who buy into to the “by fore if necessary” rhetoric could say that China’s “economic option” (AKA a ‘hostile takeover’) with Taiwan was “wishful thinking” or an “either way” approach. Through economic ties, so it could be said, Beijing could cripple Taiwan before the invasion. Thus, Taiwan could always cave, “but if not”, Beijing would be in a better position.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 16, 2015

A thorough and thoughtful article catches wind, documenting China’s threats against Great Britain over Hong Kong. Based on records declassified in 2013, the Crown wanted independence for Hong Kong long ago, but Beijing threatened invasion. The Hong Kong we know has been a store front so China can access the world and so Taiwan would become jealous, which it has not. This research article surfaced in the wake of the foreseeable publicizing effect of the Umbrella Movement’s forte. Now, reports are suggesting that, not only do China’s promises no longer matter, but they probably never mattered in the first place.

Bullies make threats because they fear conflict. Victors reply, “It doesn’t matter,” before the fight. Peacemakers are usually the most powerful. China has one problem that goes largely unreported: They have not been tested by war as the last four generations of American soldiers have been. China’s other problems are starting to make headlines, including the fact that Taiwan is finding its heart.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 9, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 9, 2015

China was doing great. They had it “goin’ on”. Then, they made some choices over the last few years. Now, the Pacific region is foreseeably destabilizing. But the least of those concerns, and arguably the most overrated, is the situation in Hong Kong. Before we review the facts, read clearly; Hongkongers have nothing to fear. Here are the facts: China promised a kind of “contained autonomy” to Hong Kong as a precondition for Britain leaving the former colony.

As history repeated in Hong Kong as in the American British colonies, when Britain left, the former colony prospered. Now, in being consistent with old school Asian rhetoric, China is omitting key phrases during rhetoric that relates to its own promise. Beijing speaks more and more about their power over Hong Kong and less about Hong Kong’s power within its own territory.

The uninformed West, including westernized Hongkongers, misunderstood this old school Asian rhetoric as being a threat.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, March 2, 2015

Taiwan and China are reportedly taking the turn to provoke God. Beijing is turning from Israel and Taiwan will no longer “discriminate” against adultery. Recent history knows that countries that change their policy on Israel get “bad luck”, but fully legalizing adultery has yet to be tested. Israel and Islam are ever more on the Asian radar in news and politics.

The highly popular mayor of Tainan in Taiwan has determined to remove statues of Chiang Kai-shek in the shadow of the recent 228 massacre memorial, when Taiwanese refused to welcome the KMT-Nationalists in their flight from the Communists, thus preparing the way for decades of martial law. Chiang Kai-shek and his KMT-Nationalist political party are seen as tyrants by more and more Taiwanese.

The West shakes its head more and more over the region, whether moving moved Microsoft jobs to Vietnam, climate, dealings with the neighbors, or Hong Kong promises—which the Crown, all of a sudden, thinks weren’t kept so well as was claimed a few months ago.  · · · →