Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 28, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 28, 2015

China steps up its game again. While companies won’t be required to give Beijing power to indiscriminately snoop the web, they are on notice to cooperate with coming procedures if they are asked. This time wasn’t the first, but it’s a little more clear, a little more friendly, and a little more toothy than the last.

Taiwan’s likely Presidential victor party, the DPP, has adopted a policy effectively outlawing the KMT-Nationalist party practice of owning for-profit businesses. The policy is wise by many measures, respect from the US and an even greater increase in voter support notwithstanding.

Since the US stepped up its own game, $1.8B to Taiwan, China is not happy.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 21, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 21, 2015

Tensions intensify in the China seas. Beijing knows it. Washington knows it. Everyone knows it.

Japan delayed a US cooperation step-up due to popularity issues. The Japanese public is tired of the US war machine in their back yard, however increasingly necessary Chinese patterns make such cooperation. Perhaps Japan suffers from US-imosed affluenza. Japan’s Diet is holding off until the public “figures out” that cooperation with the US is a good idea. Do they know something we don’t? What exactly is it that will happen to convince the Japanese voters to change their minds? The Diet seems to think that we’ll find out soon enough.

Taiwan’s historic election is fast approaching. Debate formats have been agreed to. The new likely party is recognizing progress from the sinking establishment. China’s answer to a new political power remains unknown.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2015

As elections push forward in Taiwan and Malaysia, China faces it’s own political issue: Military reform.

The report from Reuters demonstrates two things. Firstly, we see that China’s military does, in fact, need reform. This is evidenced by the 300k military jobs cut since September. With an obviously larger shakeup coming, it is clear that the change is necessary, given China’s implied military status quo.

Secondly, we learn that China needs to sell the need for reform to its own military, thereby implying that, while the reform is necessary, many remain yet to be convinced that it is.

Generally speaking, growing assertiveness while implementing reform where there is no current invasion underway is typically an attempt to spread oneself too thin. This not only relates to the failing political establishment in Taiwan and Malaysia, but generic maritime strategy in the Pacific.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 7, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 7, 2015

A day which shall live in infamy.

While the world pauses to remember the day the US was provoked into entering WWII, the headlines paused over China the week before. All eyes, including Thailand’s, are on violence from the Mid East.

China and Taiwan swap spies. US and China swap hackers. China and Russia swap satellites. Reporters swap sympathies and memos. And everyone is supposed to think that there will be peace that lives alongside infamy. But that’s only for those who forget.

Though quietly at times, the Cadence marches on toward Pacific conflict.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 30, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 30, 2015

Strength against China grows. The people of Taiwan don’t hate China; they want friendship with China. This makes them stronger than people who want subordinates and acquisitions. Communist Beijing and pro-China-control Taipei seem out of touch.

Research consistently demonstrates that a sizable majority of Taiwanese identify themselves as quite distinct from China. The KMT-Nationalist establishment views national sentiment as a result of opposition party propaganda rather than the opposition party’s power being an expression of national sentiment. The Nationalists don’t seem to understand that their policies help their opposition more than any campaign strategy could.

China rejected the entry of the young Miss World Canada winner. She wanted to participate in the global contest in Hainan. She spoke out on Human Rights and was turned away at her connection terminal. This put her in the global spotlight. Yet, it is doubtful that Beijing will be able to recognize, let alone accept, the power they gave this young girl.  · · · →