Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 13, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 13, 2015

With China’s economy failing, the Chinese KMT-Nationalist party living in exile at Taiwan may have made a mistake in trying to merge the fates of the New Taiwan Dollar with the Chinese Yuan. Election time in Taiwan could mean a political “pay day”. China is in financial crisis.

Weapon sales from the US to Taiwan have stalled during the tenure of Obama and Ma, Taiwan’s president. Both elections are in 2016 and analysts are wondering why the US won’t deliver on its sales to Taiwan. The obvious answer seems to evade experts and pundits. Even with America’s failed negotiations with China, the Pentagon doesn’t seem stupid enough to sell weapons to a nation run by leaders who don’t know how to explain their own foreign policy. The Pentagon delivery service will deliver once Taiwan clearly announces which country should appear on the shipping label.

In the meanwhile, China’s bad economy seems more scary than Greece’s.  · · · →

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 6, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 6, 2015

China moves more and more with money. The economy is crashing, largely due to the Communist doctrine that citizens do not own land—something we rarely read about.

China also gears up for both war and investment contingency. BRICS was ratified this week. New national “interests” rhetoric and policy came from Beijing, implying war against Taiwan more than recently.

The Taiwan problem comes from documentation. When the Japanese surrendered in 1945, they gave up Taiwan, which China had surrendered properly to Japan. But Japan never stated who they were giving Taiwan over to, technically rendering Taiwan an already independent State. Taiwan has been fought over by China’s Communist party after China’s KMT-Nationalist party was forced to find a place to live in de facto exile. Both Communist and KMT-Nationalist parties seem to be attempting to rewrite history, as the Taiwan education fiasco shows.

China

China’s national security law gives PLA mission to protect overseas interests

…Old rhetoric, made more official.  · · · →

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 29, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 29, 2015

China’s economy is tanking if you look at sales reports, or, no, wait, it’s going up if you ask the Chinese. China is also losing in the battle for Vietnam’s alliance: Moscow is now buddy-buddy with Hanoi.

Taiwan’s internal politics are all over the map with a presidential election schedule running near-parallel to the US 2016 election. Both countries look like they will elect a leader that wants to “deal smart” with China—against Beijing’s de facto policy of demanding that the world allow itself to be annexed by Beijing. Beijing has already rejected what looms in 2016 like a slave owner rejecting a slave’s desire to “normalize relations”.

Speaking of slavery, China is now an expert on human rights, lecturing the US. It is almost comedic, not because of the gross difference in numbers, but because China has so consistently told the US that countries should mind their own business. It seems Beijing has reversed that precedent with a new one.  · · · →

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 22, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 22, 2015

The MERS virus in South Korea is having a social-networking effect on the young generations of Taiwan and Hong Kong. With the virus in South Korea, flights are being cancelled and students in both countries who planned to visit South Korea are likely to reschedule to new flights from Hong Kong to Taiwan and vice versa. It is conventional student culture in Asia to make frequent visits between Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. When the Mandarin speakers of Taiwan and Hong Kong can’t go to Japan or South Korea, they tend to prefer each other as their “Plan B” travel plans. So, more HK and Taiwan students will be talking to each other this summer than normal. Interestingly, both HK and Taiwanese students had their own anti-Beijing expansion movements just last year. Their summer break travel has already begun.

Beijing is now fighting against the unanticipated consequences of chaos caused by a virus.  · · · →

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 15, 2015

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 15, 2015

Tension and thought. China plans to dispatch drones to watch disputed islands in the Pacific. The US is set to introduce a new war ship. Oliver Stone says viewing China’s activity as dangerous is dangerous. A co-founder of Qunar (Chinese travel agency giant) says it’s never been a better time to start a company in China, as long as you’re not a “foreigner”, then it gets more complicated.

Pundits seem to be making headlines more than policymakers. Other than a few hums and crackles, all quiet on the surface this week. Sometimes a large ebb in the tide indicates an approaching tsunami.

China

Chinese military considers using drones to patrol seas contested by Japan

China plans to build coast guard base near Senkaku Islands: sources

China says its anti-artillery radar, to be used near Myanmar border, can lock onto enemy cannons in eight seconds

There’s Never Been A Better Time To Start A Company In China: Qunar Co-Founder

Oliver Stone warns US about danger of seeing China as a threat

…He commented in HK while finishing his new movie, Snowden, supporting China’s actions in the region.  · · · →