Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 29

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 29

Inside Report—Hong Kong has one problem that is unaddressed in the media: HK can’t and doesn’t have its own military. Military service is the unwritten rule of any democracy. As much as Hong Kong needs freedom, they aren’t big enough to have their own military. That creates many problems and misunderstandings.

Hong Kong has a huge misunderstanding that could spiral out of control if everyone involved doesn’t understand each other soon. The uprising in Hong Kong is so complicated, it is difficult to accuse or defend anyone. Here are some perspectives based on anonymous sources from the inside:

With the police having used tear gas on Sunday, it’s most difficult to acquit Beijing. The unwritten law of Human Rights is that unarmed protests can interrupt their own government and force changes without arms—and if the police lift a finger to stop them, it’s a Human Rights violation. This isn’t written, but that’s what precedent hashes out to.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 22

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 22

When Ma stepped on board Taiwan’s frigate and smiled for the camera, he wasn’t smiling for the Taiwanese, he was smiling for Washington. Beijing has harbored too much friendliness with the KMT Nationalists and not enough with Taiwan’s DPP. Washington’s comments last week about supporting the KMT in 2016 will change that to shape both Taiwanese parties to fit the Pentagon’s agenda: military strength against China.

Now, two events to suggest thugs in Taiwan: The farmer who blew the whistle on Taiwan’s food oil scandal was sought by ‘men in black’ and Sunflower Movement international press translator, Oliver Chen, suspiciously falls off a cliff far from his home. Both people created big problems for the KMT Nationalists who control Taiwan—more importantly, they created trouble for Beijing, which has over 2,000 undocumented Chinese in Taiwan. Taiwan’s premier announces that Taiwan is already independent, even though his friends in Beijing threatened open war if Taiwan declares itself independent.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 15

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 15

The main topic in the press, though strange: China vs the Environment. Hong Kong’s democracy movement progresses, their opposition (mostly professors and members of government) also get louder. The US even piped in, stating that they were likely to endorse Taiwan’s pro-Beijing controlling KMT party. While the US is most likely trying to say whatever makes Beijing happy, the KMT became extremely unpopular during August and early September with scandals becoming public. US statements about the elections in Taiwan would likely enrage the Taiwanese public, leading voters of both Hong Kong and Taiwan to view all three governments being against them. While China was considered viz the environment, the people in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Philippines (the volatile zone) are being pitted against all the governments’ controlling parties, US included. This could add a new dynamic to the swelling conflict.

Political Taiwan

The Chinese Civil War Continues

…Article on how the KMT Nationalists and Chinese Communists are playing footsie, but may never be friends.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 8

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 8

The Taiwan military rhetoric of last week was compounded by a food oil scandal affecting many large Taiwan food suppliers. The ultimate effect will hurt the pockets of the de facto pro-Beijing KMT Nationalist party controlling Taiwan. As the spirits of HK and Taiwan strengthen together, from valuable mistakes, Beijing faces a new weapon: human resolve.

The Japanese development of not being solely dependent on the US for defense came with consideration: A nation needs more than weapons for defense; it needs ethics, values, and a narrative. The region is realizing that this conflict won’t be fought in one single battle, but every day, with small run-ins and decisions to become strong or to bow to the big bully of the Pacific.

Regional

Top US security adviser expected in Beijing

…Strategically at the same time as the West plans to move against ISIS in Iraq.

Political Cartoon: The unfairness of “fairness” between China and Taiwan in trade agreement, CSSTA, illustrating why the Sunflower movement’s takeover of Taiwan’s Legislature made some sense.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 1

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, September 1

You know that point… where you’ve been trying to persuade a friend to get smart, think about his actions, and change his ways… and you’ve finally convinced him to open his eyes and he sees his situation… but then he looks at you as if he’s been violated… then he shrinks back into his emotional cave, stops listening, buckles down, and walks away?

We reached that point this week with China.

More importantly, we reached another point with Taiwan: shock and realization.

In China’s defense, the Communists don’t want Hong Kongers to have “buyer’s remorse” similar to what many Americans and Taiwanese feel for their presidents. But, more from Chinese domineering culture than from Communism ideology, Beijing’s solution is to seize control from the people, rather than allowing the people to learn from their consequences of their voting.

Chinese reportedly violated Taiwan’s airspace, then denied it, then moved military vehicles through busy streets of Hong Kong.  · · · →

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, August 25

Prelude to Conflict: Asia, August 25

Asia has a bigger problem now: A Beijing spy investigation. This could tip the balance in the US military favor because the Western public doesn’t like Beijing spies. Beijing is unlikely to back down. Even in online gaming, the Chinese have trouble knowing when they are losing. They are also easy to provoke on accident.

The official “story” is that Taiwan may have gotten rid of a Beijing spy. But it gets deeper and harrier, with flashbacks to Blagojevich’s self-defense in Illinois, along with two main questions: Who helped him and why did only one person resign?

Whether it was intentional, no one helped the supposed “spy” (Chang 張顯耀) more than Taiwan’s Nationalist party (KMT). Top government leaders enacted and proposed agreement after agreement with China that encouraged secret talks between Beijing and Taiwan’s government. Spies love secrecy every bit as much as the KMT does.

Why did only one head roll?  · · · →