Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 8, 2018

China’s political, socioeconomic worldview is that of a zero-sum game. It has played its socioeconomic game that way for decades. Now, it must empty its reserve coffers to keep its zero-sum game strategy from sinking too fast. This means that it can’t use those coffers if a military conflict arose. The United States knows this.

Don’t be fooled. The US strategy is to provoke China into a conflict sooner than it wants. In the Western view, China has shown how it will behave by having shown how it has behaved more and more. This is enough to warrant preemptive agitation for the Western taxpayer. In China’s view, the world has failed to bestow on China what China deserves; because China rightly deserves what it deserves, China can’t lose.

Interpol has now gotten whatever international attention against China’s favor that Hong Kong malcontents did not. With the disappearance of Interpol’s president into China, whoever didn’t care about so-called “Chinese aggression” does now. China’s government thinks they sent a message to the world. They did, but the message received is probably not the message that was intended.

As the Pacific conflict escalates, the US-Taiwan aggravation strategy moves into more military cooperation. “Unprecedented” was the word of the week. And, everyone knows what it means just as much as everyone knows why.

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Encore of Revival: America, October 8, 2018

The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh opens a new problem for Conservatives: supermajority. Any unchecked party is dangerous. Breyer and Ginsberg are aging. If one of them resigns or passes within the foreseeable election future, the Supreme Court would be packed with Conservative, Republican judges. Justice Kennedy had been a swing vote, a kind of wild card on the court. That time is gone. We live in a new era of a truly Republican court.

The path leading the country to this Republican control, however, was too bumpy to make Republican voters lazy. Had Democrats played friendly and kind, the coming wrath of the Republican voter wouldn’t have become so big as we will see in November. With polls being reported as hopeful for Democrats, we could see even more Republicans provoked to vote in 2018 than in 2016. It almost seems as if Democrats and the media are in some kind of secret cooperation to push Republican voters.

With the economy clipping along and so many kept promises from Trump, who has a 50% job approval rating, Republican progress looks likely. There are many states reportedly in play, but that amounts to 44 Senate seats secure for Democrats and 48 secure for Republicans. The reported tossup is a steeper climb for Democrats than Republicans and, with the Kavanaugh turbulence, Republican voters won’t be staying home.

In the minds of Democrat voters, a strong Republican court makes them paranoid that Republican police could come to their homes any minute now and burn them alive for flying rainbow flags. This kind of hysteria has been cultivated by Democratic propaganda, though never stated directly, being intended to get Democratic votes, though its effects will be dangerous when those votes aren’t enough to win elections.

Republican strategy went correctly. By confirming Kavanaugh, Republicans acted like Republicans, which always brings out the Republican vote. Loss has always brought out Democratic demonstration. While we may be looking at an unusual mid-term victory for the president’s party next month, we could also be looking at riots soon after. And, in America just as we see in the swelling #WalkAway movement, the aftermath of riots leads to one thing: repentance.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 1, 2018

When China cancelled a meeting in Washington, the Chinese thought they were sending a message; Washington thought they wouldn’t be sending any more messages at all. The Chinese government wants mutual respect, trade that results in equal numbers, and that countries not be bullied into taking sides in a China-US disagreement. Though China lobbed this new policy in a complaint against the US, there have yet to be steps or specific commitments on how China will hold up its side of this new policy. It will be difficult to get clarification without communication.

US tariffs are unfair. It’s so obvious that it doesn’t need to be proven. China has a right, after all—and everyone should agree—to develop itself as a nation. China’s right to have any and all resources given to it from everywhere in the world, to whatever extent is needed for development, is an entitlement China has by birth and is already universally accepted around the world. Those in the US who oppose this obvious consensus are a rogue fringe not deserving of academic mention.

But, Taiwan is being a big bully—a meanie-face. By not rebuking the US for considering a third of a billion dollar arms sale to Taiwan, the Taiwanese are spitting in Beijing’s face once again. As if that bullying wasn’t enough, Taiwan is also planning a new place to park its helicopters. Of all the audacity!

Hong Kong, however, stands no chance against the great and mighty China. By banning a pro-independence party, the Hong Kong government sure showed them! There’s no possible hope for any kind of backlash or rise in sympathy, once the rightful leaders have made their all-powerful will known in the fully self-governed special administrative region of Hong Kong.

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Encore of Revival: America, October 1, 2018

In the words of Tyrion Lannister, “Making honest feelings do dishonest work is one of her many gifts.” Something is very wrong about the testimony against SCOTUS nominee Judge Kavanaugh. But, that doesn’t matter. The odd smiles and giggles from both the witness and her attorney, the “crying” voice without shedding one single tear, many frequent flights from someone afraid to fly when it came time to testify in a matter she wanted investigated, refusing to be interviewed in her home state while demanding an investigation, heavy use of “attorney-client privilege” from an accuser who could prove her case better by not exercising that privilege on key questions whose answers could support her case, a lie detector test administered between flights after a funeral paid for by no one knows who—none of that matters.

For the attorney blocking a question about whether Dr. Ford was informed that she could be questioned per her request, in her own state, he should be subpoenaed or Dr. Ford, her attorney, and her allegations should be dismissed—since Democrats think unusually high standards are so vital. Even Republican Senator Lindsey “Gramnesty”, who voted for Obama’s justices, adamantly defends Kavanaugh, arguing that, as a former judge himself, not so much as a warrant could be issued with such little information Dr. Ford provided at this suspiciously and conveniently late hour.

When Kavanaugh admitted to drinking in high school, he lowered his odds of Republican favor more than any accusation could. If that doesn’t take his name out, nothing will. Democrats don’t oppose him because they have a shred of belief in the witness against him, but because they know he would vote as a supreme court justice in agreement with the Declaration of Independence—that life is an unalienable human right—because they don’t want any judge who upholds the nation’s founding documents. If Democrats wanted credibility for their emotional appeal in grandstanding, they would vow before the nation to approve the next pro-Life judge appointed before the November election. But, that is just what they hope to prevent.

Even if true, these accusations shouldn’t matter. The “boys will be boys” defense is false and no one credible is making that argument, though Democrats rebut the wind. Kavanaugh has become a better person and done good and honest things since high school, so it seems anyway. He knows how to grow up. Bill Clinton doesn’t. That’s what matters. But, none of what matters seems to matter to Democrats. Where was Senator Feinstein during the Clinton years?

There could be some shred of truth to the allegations, but the manner and circumstances in which it has been presented has many predictable and craftable conveniences that just so happen to line up with Democrat party politics. If one single Democratic senator cared about these harassment charges, that senator would have voted to impeach Clinton. By Democrat standards—politician and voter alike—Kavanaugh almost qualifies as enough of a “bad boy” for the presidency.

Regardless of the senate committee’s decision, Republican voters will be furious. This could trigger a cascade turnout in November that tips the Republican favor even more than speculated thus far.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 24, 2018

Google has gone off the deep end. The level of insanity matches The Bridge over the River Kwai. Actually helping China spy—Are Google execs loopy? From a Chinese company inside China that would make sense. But, Google is American. As if helping a non-ally spy isn’t enough, social media giants are already in trouble over censorship in the US. Google could be in bigger trouble with the White House than Wall Street is.

Taiwan hasn’t wasted any time irritating China. Now, a temple that was bought seven years ago by a Taiwanese business man, which was then converted into a “shrine to Chinese communism”, is having the lights and water turned off as the local government prepares to demolish the whole place. That won’t wash over well for anyone hoping to court friendship with China.

China seems to be taking the hint and finally getting offended. Beijing cancelled a trip to talk trade with Washington after figuring out that tariffs were set by imbalance and retaliation rather than rhetoric. As for the two steering factors—imbalance and retaliation—China shows no indication of making concessions. But, it’s not the tariffs or trade talks that deserve the headlines as much as the insults mounting against China.

The US is going after Russia for selling weapons to China. That’s even more irritation. And, China is even more angry. If we were to analyze the events of the past few months, even years more subtly, it could seem that angering China was an accident. But, the recent past makes more sense, just as events are more easily anticipated, if we consider that the US is irritating China on purpose. Expect more insults from the US, along with Taiwan.

And, Korea. Yes, the two nations are getting along. That won’t work well for any nation or pundit hoping to argue that Trump doesn’t know how to make a difference in the region.

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