Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 15, 2018

Events in China are playing out according to the “Pacific Daily Times Symphony Asian Mad Scientist Theorem“. The experimental phase in North Korea is finished and methods are being applied throughout China on a much grander scale. This week, we see reports of expensive ghost cities, comparable to Pyongyang. The debt to build those ghost cities could be enough to break China’s economy into the deprived status of northern Korea. Now, swelling human rights concern could court the West to support China’s unfriendly neighbors to intervene in China as the “grand liberators”.

If things continue on track with the theorem, China would end up in an armistice against its own provinces—a standoff between Beijing and fragments of the soon-to-be-formerly united China.

Trump continues to prove that he knows what he’s doing with Kim Jong-Un. The DPRK’s Great Successor will likely wise up, still venting steam once in a while. He seems to be one of the smartest heads of state in his region—seeking more cooperation with economic policies that work, not less. But even if not, Korea will not be a border for China to ignore. Beijing and its surrounding provinces would be the likely hold-out against a liberated Northwest, Tibet, Southern Canton, and it will need to keep a 24/7 guard in the Northeast. Break-aways could form their own federation, or not. Either way, as history repeats, we look to be headed for a Cold War -style standoff between fractured Chinese regions.

The US Marines are test driving “lightning carriers”—small aircraft carriers with a potently packed punch of F-35s. Their range radius is smaller, but so is their targetable shadow. In a Pacific conflict, a smattering of lightning carriers might prove more formidable than a single, central Nimitz class group. Federated, autonomous, small attack groups tend to be wise in warfare, as the French Revolution proved on land. We’ll see at sea.

These smaller carriers are said to focus on smaller tasks, putting Nimitz class carriers—now being called “super carriers”—in the spotlight against China and Russia. And, we know that the Chinese think the spotlight is an indication of “importance”. While Russia knows better, the Chinese probably don’t. Just because headlines read that a Nimitz class focuses on China doesn’t mean US strategy would fail if China’s new “anti-carrier” missiles sunk a Nimitz. Sinking a Nimitz class carrier would only enrage the American public into a war that they couldn’t lose. That’s how history has always played out, anyway. But, the mistakes from history don’t seem to have much impact on Chinese President Xi, who is determined to revive Maoism at any cost. If Maoism is revived, it’s results will follow. That won’t end the standoff with Taiwan; it will add more uncontrolled lands to the standoff it was never strong enough to resolve.

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Encore of Revival: America, April 15, 2018

With the last of Symphony’s saboteur suspects being expelled from the Trump administration, establishment Republicans have their undies in a bunch. Their objections indicate two main motives. Toward the surface, they still think Trump’s decisions are based on calculation of “election strategery” rather than made by an administrator who wants certain things done a certain way. But, on a deeper level, they don’t want their stable, “established” world being unraveled by anyone, outsider or not. But then, there is a third, less apparent layer, more sinister—a question of whether they knew about the saboteurs and wanted them to stay there. Publicized opposition to the president of their own party certainly proves the kind of character that would undermine their own party’s president by any means.

Now that Russianewsgategate nonsense is being seen for the yesterday’s yesterday’s tabloid newspaper it always was, the media machine is gearing up to save face: Goldman Sachs thinks Trump might be re-electable. The Left doesn’t get it. The most important two things to understand about Donald Trump is that from the time he announced his candidacy, 1. he was always going to be elected and 2. he was always going to be re-elected. Those two things aren’t obvious to people who don’t understand Donald Trump.

Democratically-controlled “sanctuary cities” have been working, as they purport, to be a safe haven for immigrants. The kinds of immigrants they seek to protect, as they purport, will be helpful to their communities and to the nation. Now, they have a splendid and long-hoped-for hope of seeing their hard efforts pay off. They will be the beneficiaries of thousands of exactly the kinds of, as they purport, good people they have been standing up to defend. Yet, they found a way to be angry.

If the Trump administration were to send immigrants to the very cities hoping to be sanctuaries for them, wouldn’t that be a good thing? One would think so, unless sanctuary city laws were known to be designed to create problems. By objecting to getting what they wanted, Democrats imply that they know something that they purport everyone else doesn’t. Is there something wrong about sanctuary city laws that their Democratic leaders aren’t telling us?

The rest of America—the “fly-over” counties, the rural areas that the Democratic cosmopolitans turn their noses up at, the Conservatives who grow everyone’s food and cling to their “guns and religion”—they were suspicious about sanctuary city laws. They thought it might be a bad idea. If the Conservatives were right, then sending the invited immigrants to the party that invited them could create a breakdown of law, paving the way for the Federal Government to declare martial law and deal with sanctuary city policy makers that way.

Just imagine: Trump-controlled Democratic cities—and it all would have been made possible by Democrats. But, that’s assuming that the Conservatives were right. We’ll see.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 8, 2019

America’s government has finally cracked the code on China. They know how to get under China’s skin. They had an idea before, but the algorithm—the precise frequency of activation—needed fine-tuning. And, of course, China made it all too easy to know that the code had been cracked. The sale of 60 F-16V’s to Taiwan—inferior in both number and, supposedly, technology—wasn’t even made official. Still, China couldn’t wait to announce to the world exactly the kind of insignificance that it found irritating above all previous attempts.

With this new and tested knowledge, we can expect the US to do more, and to do so more subtly. America will stand calmly, smiling. China will fume more every day, seemingly for no reason. At last, the Chinese will be so overwhelmed with rage that they will strike before military wisdom advises.

The sad, but poetic, part is that no warnings, not even reading this article, not even a spy exposing some kind of “provocation plot” or whatnot would be able to deter China from this fate. For, China loves respect above all else. Those who hunger for respect are easy to provoke and anyone provoked is under complete control of the provocateur. And, Chinese culture doesn’t know how to change or even listen.

But, there is another factor that blinded China to the American tactics. A nation with a one-child policy won’t have as much experience in sibling rivalry. America doesn’t have such a policy. Americans learn from childhood how to get under some else’s skin—especially when that someone else is the known playground bully who needs to be provoked to a brawl and sent to the principle’s office before getting any older, and bigger.

The die has been cast. The fate of the American-Chinese war has already been determined: China strikes; China loses; China loses more. Now, it’s just a matter of watching how the specifics play out on our road to the foreseen.

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Encore of Revival: America, April 8, 2019

America is on the quiet this week. It’s the deep calm before the storm. People are tired. Unsatisfied opponents of Conservatism are getting wary from victory deferred after victory deferred. Now, they are looking to another failed candidate to put their hope in, Sanders.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. The invented Mueller Russianewsgategate scandal scandal is coming to its grand fizzle-and-pop of an ending. The Left is self-destructing with its old playbook tactic. When melodrama isn’t enough to get what they want, they respond with more melodrama.

Kirstjen Nielsen is finally gone. Since the “New York Times Essay”, the public grew suspicious of insiders trying to sabotage the Trump administration. In the Pacific Daily Times Symphony list of suspects, she was right there at the top with John Kelly. (See Encore articles from September 10, November 19, and December 10 of 2018.) Firing both discretely and far apart was among the best ways to handle saboteurs. Were they? Only Trump knows for sure, and that’s the way it should stay.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 1, 2019

China is being overwhelmed—Huawei to the west, British probes to the south, Kim to the north, but the prospect of trade to the east. The weakness is in the Chinese-cultural paradigm of negotiation. Chinese culture wants to sign a contract first, then negotiate the terms after. That’s a polite way of explaining “psychopathic negotiation”.

China labels Hong Kong as an “internal”, national security matter. It’s not; it’s a “joint” matter. According to the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, China can’t govern Hong Kong as its own until 2047—a mandate for Hong Kong being under Beijing’s leadership. By telling Britain to “face reality”, London will see the reality as Beijing reneging on the deal. It’s not that China wants to be malicious, but that China doesn’t understand what a promise really entails.

That could be why the Chinese offer such sweeping concessions to get better trade with America. They might not understand that promises about those concessions will actually have to be kept. But, there’s more that sails over Beijing’s brightest heads.

America shows no indication of backing down on Taiwan. By cozying up on trade, Beijing probably hopes America will receive an indirect message about Taiwan. But, if Taiwan isn’t discussed, then it’s not part of the trade agreement—or any agreement with the US. Beijing, probably laden with more wishful thinking than savvy, won’t understand. They just won’t understand.

That’s the Korean problem to the north. Trump knew exactly what he was doing by telling Kim exactly what “de-nuking” looked like. They had talked before. Kim had taken a three day journey to talk again. Now Kim knows reality: a free economy prospers, North with nukes has neither in the end. That won’t go over well with a culture more prideful than the Chinese. Trump knows this.

Now, Kim is a loose canon to China’s north and the only thing Trump did was unleash the obvious. We’ll see how long it takes for China to understand, if ever.

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Encore of Revival: America, April 1, 2019

The message from the EU is clear: “Join us so if you leave we can make you suffer for it.” Now, Italy cozies up to China?

Boeing tried to mount too big an engine on too small a plane because the engine used less fuel. This changed the plane’s aerodynamic personality; software was their solution. But, with software come bugs. So, Boeing had a warning light option if the software got too buggy. Ethiopian and Lion Air chose not to spend the $80k extra for the warning light. That cost Boeing about $40B in stock value. Now, we see that the FAA had turned a half-blind eye.

But, many other warnings have been ignored. America is polarizing. The only things deeper than the deep pockets of the US Treasury are the Left’s demands for spending. Senate Democrats silently watched the “Green New Deal” go down in flames. Cities may follow. When the going gets tough, the Right gets working while the Left gets burning hot mad.

Immigration is broken, not just in America, but everywhere. We need a proper on-ramp for good foreigners to enter any country. But, vitriol doesn’t make reforms. There is a difference between vitriol and a “tantrump”. Trump has achieved far more in two years than Obama did in eight. Still the Left stays vitriolic. That’s their only strategy, it seems.

The Left doesn’t want the Right to survive. The Right wants everyone to have the room to work and thrive. Neither will back down.

Peggy Noonan wrote in the Wall Street Journal:

It’s not enough that contraceptives be covered in the government-mandated plan; the nuns must conform. It’s not enough you be sensitive to the effect of your words and language; you must be punished for saying or thinking the wrong thing. It’s not enough that gay marriage is legal; you must be forced to bake the cake. It won’t do that attention be paid to scientific arguments on the environment; America must upend itself with green new deals or be judged not to care about children.

Yes, America is polarizing more than ever before. Who wins? We’ll see.

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