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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 22, 2016

There really isn’t much news this week in the Pacific. China and Russia practice war games in the disputed South Sea while the US and South Korea practice their war games near the Korean Peninsula. Taiwan’s government continues what is expected of the new regime: Status quo, strength, and corruption crackdowns—two of which don’t exactly please China.

Status quo is exactly what China will not accept. Taiwan and the US object to the objection to status quo. No big changes are coming from the countries China opposes. China is determined to break the mood. Beijing sees the West as “already having” upset status quo and wants to revert to history—well, a specific part of history anyway. So, “status quo” has become a relative term, as has “perp”. We’ll have to leave conclusions in the hands of the people.

That conclusion may be soon as much as it may be well-informed. The world slowly becomes more and more aware of what is happening in the South Sea. When someone busts a move to make headlines, there won’t be any surprises.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 22, 2016

Today’s news is that Trump passed Hillary at the LA Times’ poll. This week could be about as evenly divided as America may ever be concerning Trump.

Liberal logic against Trump seems to be generally about as complex as, “He is ridiculous because he just is.” This does not mean that Liberal critics of Trump are not thinking or can’t formulate logical explanations of their ideas. Rather, it seems that, to them, Trump opposes all their ideologies for self-evident reasons. Of course. No one would disagree that Trump “just seems ridiculous” by all Liberal standards. Asking Liberals to provide reasons for their view of Trump would be like asking a fashion expert to deduce the rational for concluding that someone’s clothes don’t match; you either see it or you don’t. The back-and-forth between “Trumpists” and Libs isn’t unusual, though a little more entertaining this election cycle.

But, the unusual critique of Trump comes from closer to his own base: Conservatives.

Symphony cannot find a substance-based explanation from Conservatives who distrust Trump. The only Right Wing explanations seem hypothetical, demographic-based, and inductive. “He walks among the rich. Therefore he will act like a crony capitalist in government,” goes the general reason for suspicion.

Conservatives usually base their beliefs on proven history, not untested ideology. In logic, Conservatives prefer to be deductive, not inductive. Conservatives generally act more understanding of wealthier classes. So, it seems strange for an inductive theory based on class-focused stereotypologies to move Conservatives so. But, it does. They find their reasons for distrusting Trump quite compelling.

Given history, why shouldn’t they?

Americans believe that Hillary’s sale of her country for personal and financial gain is just normal. They look at Obama dumping cash on Iran like a “drug dealer in chief”. They see Bush having willfully played the “Sunday morning” card to get elected; they felt fooled. Accordingly, many people believe that Trump should and will attempt any and all of the same. They believe this without any further evidence than the past has already presented.

But, Trumpists also cite the past, specifically in Trump’s portfolio.

Trump’s track record says he will be good. If he can’t build something, it will be the first time. If he lets someone else’s money control him—even someone who won’t miss a billion dollars—it would be the first time. If the overall treasury he manages ends in sell-off bankruptcy, it will be the first time. If his opponents gain an advantage and defeat him, it will be the first time. If his projects are filled with “$20,000 hammers”, it will be the first time. If he doesn’t fire incompetent people who would make things worse, it will be the first time. If his enemies don’t make some sort of peaceful compromise with him, it will be the first time.

But, his Conservative doubters don’t see those “first times” as well as they see other “first times”…

If a politician isn’t controlled by big money, it will be the first time. If a president makes peace with his enemies, it would be the first time since Reagan and Gorbachev. If government projects don’t see costs bloated by pork cronyism, it will be the first time. If incompetent people get fired swiftly, it will be the first time. If “faith and switch” doesn’t exploit Sunday morning voters, it will be the first time—though Grudem and Dobson may have spoiled that already, but at least it isn’t coming from the candidate himself, for the first time.

Perhaps things have just been too bad and too difficult for just too long. If Trump wins, no matter what happens, there will be a lot of “first times”. And, in these times of so many firsts, a lot of people don’t know what they should think.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 15, 2016

While Taiwan accepts yet another slow-delivery weapons deal, one of the slowest to date, China continues to build on the ocean to face off against the United States. It’s pure war strategy, East to West.

The argument goes that China carefully times its strategic “stepping on toes”. The next purported toe will be the site of the next man-made islet, deep within Philippine water and economic defense zone. China, according to reports of anonymous sources, plans that these toe steps occur after G20 and before the US election. This is where Beijing’s miscalculation shows.

Supposedly, during the US election season, Americans will be distracted with Trump v Clinton headlines and won’t have the time to worry about what China does in the Philippine’s back yard pool. However, this overlooks the topics surrounding Trump and Clinton, specifically the long history that both have with China and that opinion about either candidate is largely shaped by China’s actions.

If and when China steps in it in the Philippines, that “when” would serve China’s shrewdness better if postponed until after the election, lest China give American’s the excuse they need to elect the candidate most outspoken against China. Beijing’s timing would be more respected from one adversary to another if the Philippine islet reclaiming began after the US election and before the inauguration—after it’s too late for the American people to change their minds. But, once again, Beijing is likely to demonstrate that, while it has the courage to stand up to the US, it doesn’t have the listening ability to know the very enemies it chooses.

Beijing wants a deal with the Philippines. They know how to make a deal when they want to. What transpires over the coming months will be as foreseeable as it is by choice for all involved.

In times when China wants to dominate the water, Michael Phelps proved otherwise, for the third time in a row.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 15, 2016

Phelps got his 23rd gold, breaking his own world record. He wants swimming to continue to grow in his “wake”. Formerly seen as a “sissy” sport, this will have an impact on America’s culture.

One app maker is determined that Trump will win. If the reports are correct, Bush and Obama administrations squash truth-tellers in the military. That certainly explains what the heck happened in the Mid East. But, it also explains why an app developer asking normal people questions could know more about the upcoming election than the establishment-sanctioned “experts” running polls.

Sometimes, understanding politics isn’t a matter of pleasing professors, but being able to listen to people. Being good at whatever we do means being good at something. Right now, not many top dogs in Washington seem to be good at what they do. So, it only makes sense that a New York businessman with no political experience might actually be the least unskilled man for the task. At least, a growing number of certain app users seem to think so.

Phelps making waves matters socially as well as politically. If America was all bad or our enemies were all right, Phelps wouldn’t have been able to do what he did. His championship won’t cause the coming tsunami of sweeping American victories; it’s more of an indication or a prophecy, in a sense.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 8, 2016

China, China, China. That’s what we see in headlines and it’s what we see in the Pacific. Japan objects to 230 Chinese vessels swarming disputed islands. Chinese jets swarm over its man-made islands. And none of the actions of China come accidentally. CNBC reports a closed and undisclosed meeting of top Communist Party officials.

Beijing may be unaware that they are setting a precedent for each country in a dispute to send 230 vessels—or maybe not. Maybe Beijing thinks other countries can’t compete with Chinese force. Or, maybe a confrontation is what Beijing wants.

The unreported factor in the Pacific dispute is that each country acts according to a psychology foreign to all others.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 8, 2016

The world is buckling down on everything.

Palin postulates that Paul Ryan wants to run in 2020, which makes everything everywhere make sense in the entire world.

Obama gives $400M to Iran, despite what it will do to his post career.

Americans are buying more guns than ever having bought more guns than ever before—15 months in a row of new record months.

Trump continues to creep up on Hillary in the polls, likely to have a higher victory margin than polls the day before the election.

And, a John Hopkins University researcher more or less says that transgender issues should be treated, not enabled.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, August 1, 2016

A pro-China policy has made a Hong Kong politician famous. The fuel was supplied to the press, then the press sold newspapers. National Party and pro-independence candidate Chan Ho-tin has received more international press in one day than almost any other politician in Hong Kong can hope for in an entire career. An individual in the Hong Kong government determined that Chan was not “sincere” enough in his pledge to uphold Hong Kong’s “Basic Law”, which defines Hong Kong as a part of China.

While Chan had help becoming famous, Yeung Ke-cheong got himself disqualified from the same election all by himself, simply by not making the necessary pledge. Chan plans to appeal the decision. A politician from an opposing party put Chan in the same category as a terrorist, yet has not provided explanation for how terrorists usually have no problem with “sincerity” one way or another. After considering this, there appears to be no unified coordination coming from Hong Kong against pro-independence politicians. Moreover, there seems to be no concern from Beijing over how one individual’s decision in Hong Kong resulted in the international fame of their political opponent. Beijing might have been more pleased had Chan’s pledge been accepted, he been allowed to run, then been indited for perjury once there was sufficient evidence that his pledge had not been genuine, but now we won’t know.

Were it not for this incident, many Westerners might not even know that Hong Kong even has a pro-independence movement. Now, the West does. Usually, one wants one’s enemies to receive as little press as possible. This all makes the opposition to the opposition look a little less organized, making the initial opposition seem less serious for opposing such a disorganized opposition to their opposition. And, that makes the whole thing seem somewhat absurd. In it all, the West was roused against Beijing once again by the international attention on Hong Kong, “Asia’s World City”.

Meanwhile, in the South Sea, Beijing has cited the 1986 incident, when the US refused Hague’s ruling to pay reparations to Nicaragua. However, there seemed to be no comment from Beijing on how many other countries Beijing is ignoring in its policy in the South Sea. Unfortunately, both the US and Beijing speak mainly of Hague where Hague rulings are concerned, rather than keeping the focus on international community. It seems that Hague is the big distraction for both the US and China. With Russia teaming up with China for a semi-routine naval exercise in the South Sea this coming September, the international community’s opinion is relevant, even though it does not see much limelight.

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Encore of Revival: America, August 1, 2016

Russia steps it up with subs, naval cooperation with China, and—hurting Hillary’s election chances? Jeff Bezos is now advising the Pentagon.  And, NATO “has no chance”. What’s happening in America?—the clefting of revival.

The DNC convention saw a former president while the RNC convention saw none. Similarly to Obama, Trump campaigned against the Bush dynasty, which apparently is not the Republican party. A lot of things don’t seem to be the Republican party.

Clinton’s polls continue to slide. Trump sabotaged the DNC convention with his own press conference. Things are changing one way or another. The next president will likely serve two terms and will be the last president from the DNC or the RNC, ever.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 25, 2016

The words “China” and “tariffs” are appearing in headlines together again. Cambodia is seen as a Chinese puppet in ASEAN. And, one dissenting opinion from Forbes claims that tariffs are only about consumers, not about jobs and whole economies. Contrary to China’s unspoken messages, Beijing asks for more economic cooperation, but Europe is stealing the limelight.

If China were truly interested in global economic growth, they should move their shadow away from the economic shipping lanes in the South China sea. But, that idea doesn’t exactly come to mind to the Communist worldview, which presumes that success is bestowed rather than sown and reaped.

Taiwan’s order of 50 some amphibious vehicles from the US has been delayed until 2020, three and a half years. Yet, the US called on Taiwan to create a vehicle for a lunar landing. One would think that Taiwan might build 50 some lunar landing vehicles for Taiwanese use under water, especially since the specs should not be as complex, but that was not reported. Perhaps the US could divert NASA resources to Taiwan’s security to ensure that the lunar vehicle supplier is not crushed by an invasion from China, but that was not reported either.

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Encore of Revival: America, July 25, 2016

Americans got to know Trump a little better this week. Many young Democrats will also get to know him at the debates when they watch him unedited for the first time, as predicted here many times. Some people still think a losing third party is not just another tool of the two-party system.

Some people were not surprised by Trump “appearing more presidential” in his speech. Some people see smoke on the horizon before others; some people never see the smoke no matter how close they are. The stats of who blooms late and early will predict Trump’s election. You have read it here already many times because it was all predictable to those who understand the times.

After Monday’s failed coup on rules, Cruz permanently removed himself from politics Wednesday night. Cruz’s so-called “values” demonstrably include: If someone finds your secret pet peeve and pushes the button, then you are obligated to sabotage your own career and lose whatever you stood to gain for your loyal supporters. It’s better to know sooner than later: he probably won’t make it to the Supreme Court as he might have after all.

Why did Ailes leave Fox? Throw into the mix the main viewing audience’s political party’s nomination for president: consider parallel timing of events, factor enemies and allies, then it all makes plausible sense without explanation.

Islamic attacks are no longer worthy of headlines. How many people saw that coming?

Donald J Trump Jr’s. speech writer, FH Buckley, was accused of plagiarizing the speech he himself wrote from an article he himself wrote—before the critics knew he was a speech writer. How many people saw that coming?

Numbers don’t lie. Trends do indicate. Read the times. Know the signs of the seasons. And remember what the papa tomato said to the baby tomato while crossing the street: Ketchup.

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